Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions have fallen sharply since the growth and spread of COVID-19 as activity from business and travel has slowed, according to experts. For example, according to a BBC report, traffic levels are down by about 35% and carbon monoxide levels are down by nearly 50% in New York City compared to the same time last year.

Closures of factories in China during the outbreak caused a significant drop in smog levels. Air pollution levels in Italy have dropped, too. In both nations, millions of people were kept under lockdown or quarantine to slow the virus, reducing business and other activities. The decline in emissions has been confirmed by NASA and European Space Agency satellites. In the US, where 50% of car trips take people to or from work or school, where so many have been closed, similar declines are expected.
According to https://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-51944780, by May, scientists predict that GHG emissions may be at their lowest levels recorded in a decade, since the Great Recession.

One area where the business slump will significantly reduce GHG emissions is the airline industry as some studies believe CO2 emissions from air travel may have a disproportionate effect on heat trapping. The severe slump that the airlines are facing would mean significant reductions in their contribution. Therefore, airlines are expected to push back against proposed European climate change taxes meant to address the industry’s outsized effects.

There is concern by many in the environmental field that this downward spikes in GHG and other emissions are temporary and will result in a bounce back when economic conditions return to close to normal. In fact, there may be a major increase in emissions as people “catch up” on lost travel and other manufacturing opportunities. This has been observed after financial crises and terrorist attacks as those reductions in economic activity, such as certain manufacturing, driving, and air travel were temporary and then bounce back. On the other hand, some are predicting that social distancing practices that many are implementing, such as more home cooking, remote meetings and working and learning from home, may gain traction and become the norm even after activity approaches normal again, cutting back on manufacturing, transportation, and agricultural GHG and other emissions in the long-term.

CCES has the experts to help you assess your greenhouse gas and other air toxic emissions from your operations and project future emissions in a recovery or for other changes. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.