Category Archives: Climate Change

NYC Enacts New Rule Requiring GHG Emission Limits for Commercial, Residential Buildings

On April 22, 2019, Earth Day, the City of New York enacted the “Climate Mobilization Act” into law (“Intro 1253”). This law will impose mandatory GHG emission limits for large buildings, beginning in calendar year 2024. This new rule is clearly the most ambitious Climate Change rule taken by a U.S. municipality.

Buildings are responsible for about 70% of NYC’s GHG emissions; half of this comes from large buildings. Therefore, NYC has focused on the building sector to meet their 80% X 2050 emission reduction goals, starting with its own energy code and with local laws requiring benchmarking, energy audits, retro-commissioning, and sub-metering.

Rule Overview

Intro 1253 goes further, containing GHG emission intensity limits on nearly all buildings of at least 25,000 square feet of floor area beginning in 2024. The law defines the term “building emissions” as “GHG emissions as expressed in metric tons of CO2e emitted as a result of operating a covered building.” Thus, the limits on GHG emissions will apply not only to Scope 1 or on-site sources (such as those from a building’s boiler) but also include Scope 2 or off-site sources caused by a demand, such as purchased steam or electricity consumed in building operations. The building emissions intensity limits are tailored to specific Occupancy Groups. They will be be ratcheted down in 5-year intervals after 2029 to reduce GHG emissions from covered buildings by 80% by 2050.

The table in the link below summarizes GHG emission limits from different listed building types. https://energywatch-inc.com/breaking-new-york-city-council-passes-first-of-its-kind-ghg-emissions-cap-for-buildings/

Exemptions

A major category exempt from this law is “rent regulated accommodations”, such as those with rent-stabilized units, lest rents may be raised markedly for needed upgrades. Intro 1253 does require the owners of such excluded rental multifamily buildings to implement several prescriptive energy conservation measures, such as repairing leaky heating systems, insulating pipes for heat and hot water, weatherizing windows and ductwork, and installing timers on exhaust fans. Among the other rule exemptions are public housing and houses of public worship. Not-for-profit hospitals and health-care facilities are not exempted from the rule but will need to meet less stringent standards.

Paths To Compliance

Intro 1253 provides a number of pathways to reduce GHG emissions. Thus, reductions may be credited to an owner for “renewable energy credits” (RECs), so long as the RECs are generated by a renewable source located in or directly deliverable to NYC. For calendar years between 2024 and 2029 deductions for up to 10% of reported annual emissions may also be taken for GHG offsets (offsite emission reductions) purchased by a building owner. Additional deductions from a building’s calculated emissions for the output of a clean distributed energy resource must be located at, on, in or directly connected to the building.

This new law does not allow for emissions trading among covered buildings. However, the City is studying the feasibility of such a trading scheme and will report to the Mayor and Speaker of the City Council by no later than January 1, 2021.

Intro 1253 imposes significant civil penalties for exceeding the annual building emissions limit and the degree of excess emissions. These penalties could run into the hundreds of thousands of dollars annually.

What You Can Do NOW To Reduce The Cost and
Aggravation of Complying

Owners of covered buildings should take advantage of the “head start” before the 2024 compliance date to begin developing strategies for addressing the requirements of Intro 1253. Technical experts can estimate whether a building, as it is operating today, would comply with the 2024 limits and, if not, options to achieve compliance in time. The owner has time to choose the best option(s) to comply, reducing costs and risk if the owner waited longer. And future planning is critical. The technical assessment can anticipate the likely operation and emissions of systems in 2024. This early determination of strategies can save a building owner a lot in avoided compliance costs.

Intro 1253 is reality. Building owners in NYC will need to determine their GHG emissions and possibly modify or upgrade energy systems to comply with the standards. Other cities and states will be watching and Intro 1253 could well be a model that others will emulate. Don’t just push this aside to another time or year. Look into this soon, be active, and take steps soon to comply, saving you money and raising your asset value. Watch out for more CCES blog articles on this rule and how to comply as the City of New York provides more details!

CCES has the experts in both energy engineering and greenhouse gas (“carbon”) emissions to help you assess your covered buildings and their compliance status, and can recommend smart and prudent steps to ensure compliance early on, saving you much money, improving asset value, and reducing the worry about compliance. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.

Despite Tech Advances, CO2 Emissions Soar in 2018

Global CO2 emissions from energy sources rose by 1.7% to 33 Gigatonnes (billion metric tons or Gt) in 2018, reversing a trend of a slow decline.

Despite the recent growth in renewable power projects (31% increase in solar alone) and the retirement of a growing number of coal and other fossil-fuel plants, world CO2 emissions grew in 2018. The main reason is the overall increase in global energy demand, by 2.3% in 2018, the greatest rise this decade. Analysts believe this was driven by a growing global economy and reaction to greater severe weather (increased heating and cooling needs) in some areas. While natural gas is a “cleaner” fuel than coal and oil, its use increased markedly in 2018, including new power plants, and accounted for 45% of the rise in energy consumption, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). While the 31% growth in solar last year was impressive, it is 31% increase of a small number compared to fossil fuels whose overall use rose, too.

Despite the decline in coal use and retirement of coal-fired power plants in Europe and the U.S, coal-fired power plants are still popular and growing in developing Asia, where many of these plants are relatively new and have decades of useful life remaining. Therefore, decreasing CO2 emissions in the future is problematic.

Renewables were a major contributor to this power generation expansion, accounting for nearly half of electricity demand growth. China remains the leader in renewables, both for wind and solar, followed by Europe and the U.S.

A significant contributor to the 2.3% increase in global energy demand in 2018, according to the IEA, is the increase in heating and cooling as average winter and summer temperatures as some regions approached or exceeded historical records.

Energy demand growth was led by the U.S. Together, China, the U.S., and India accounted for nearly 70% of the total global rise in energy demand.

Global natural gas demand rose 4.6% in one year; in the U.S., the rise was for natural gas alone was 10% last year, the U.S.’s largest increase since the beginning of IEA records in 1971. Gas demand in China increased by almost 18%. Oil demand grew 1.3% worldwide, with the U.S. leading the global increase due to strong growth in petrochemical and other industrial production and transportation.

This points to a need to improve our energy intensity (energy use per GDP) and energy efficiency to allow economic growth while stifling the growth and even decrease usage of energy sources to address the goals to reduce CO2 emissions. The technology is there, but the leadership from government is lacking.

Global issue or not, CCES can help your company improve your energy efficiency to save you costs, raise your asset’s value, and improve productivity at the same time. In addition, we work with a number of utility and government programs who will pay YOU to be more energy efficient and save money. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.

Talking Points: Green Buildings

Part of a series taking important new concepts and wording it so you can pass basic information to your colleagues and contacts.

Background

With growing public awareness and concern about climate change and environmental peril, upgrading buildings is becoming of greater importance. Buildings play a significant role in our everyday human life. We spend so much of our time inside buildings. They must not only serve our purposes and be comfortable but have a minor impact on our environment. How can we design and operate buildings in this way to be “green”?

What Is “Green Building”?

There is no specific, universal standard for a “green building”, and, sadly, some claims are controversial. The USGBC has a green building standard called Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design (LEED). Any building meeting LEED standards and certified by the USGBC as thus, can certainly claim to be “green”. But meeting strict LEED standards is expensive and takes time, a hardship for some. Owners can benefit from incorporating at least some green building features. Any building improvement resulting in energy efficiency, reduced water usage, better indoor air quality, reduced waste formation (and/or greater recycling rates), and incorporation of innovative technologies, such as green roof systems and renewable power, are positive steps toward being “green”, will likely result in financial benefits, and is worth talking about.

The Many Financial Benefits of Green Building

It is important to understand that implementing strategies in some or all of these areas will result in positive financial benefits. Here are some.

It’s Not So Expensive. Conventional thinking is that adding “green” features to an upgrade will make the project prohibitively expensive. Not true. Most “green” technologies have dropped in price because there is more competition. Also, many utilities and governments have reason to encourage “green” upgrades and will pay part of the upfront cost directly to you in rebates or tax incentives.

Reduced Costs. Key phrase: if done properly, a green upgrade will reduce your operating costs, such as electricity, fuel, and/or water enough over the lifetime of the change to pay back the initial investment and much more. ROIs equivalent to 20, 30, or 40% or more per year have been achieved. What many people don’t realize is that, for example, for technologies to reduce electricity usage (improved lights, better HVAC, improved insulation), you pay for it one time, but get the cost savings year after year. (It’s not like you are going to yank out the efficient lights and re-install the old ones!) In fact, if you determine that you save, say, $10,000 per year in electricity costs the first year after changes, the savings will not only be another $10,000 the next year, but actually more, as savings are based on your utility rate, and that only rises in time (have you seen a utility lower its electric rates?). This is why such projects – again, if done smartly – should not be thought about as cute or “cool”, but as a very good financial investment, too. According to the California Sustainable Building Task Force (https://www.thespruce.com/benefits-of-green-buildings-1708553), a 2% invest-ment in green building design will save over 10 times that investment in the long run. A $20,000 investment in green features of a $1 million project, will typically result in $200,000 in actual cost savings over 20 years. A question I like to ask: what bank or Wall St. investment pays a return like that?! And with no risk?

Reduced O&M. Many “green” upgrades result in reduced O&M costs compared to previous. For example, LED lights do not “burn out”. Many LED lights are warrantied for 7 to 10 years, unlike most fluorescents which typically last about 2 years. This means less time for Maintenance to change light bulbs, freeing them to focus on high-priority projects and also reducing accident risk (fall off a ladder).

Higher Rents, Better Tenants. Having a certified “green” building is known to attract more high-end tenants who want/need the association, allowing the owner to charge higher rates. The resale value of certified “green” buildings is higher because potential buyers know that costs (energy, water, waste) will be lower.

More Satisfied Tenants (Less Turnover). There is enough experience now that studies have shown that working in a certified green building is good for both physical and mental health, improving the productivity of the tenant company and resulting in the desire to renew the lease for the long-term. Lower tenant turnover and having successful businesses as tenants is good for the building owner. Investment by an owner in such features as better ventilation, no VOC carpets and furniture, no toxic pesticides, green roofs can result in this. A building owner can go further and invest in upgrades for gyms, more bike racks, better furniture, upgrading staircases, etc. to boost the health and well-being of building users. A new standard from the USGBC called WELL codifies such changes. One major study (http://newsroom.ucla.edu/releases/study-certified-green-companies-238203) showed that employees who work in green buildings were 16% more productive than those who work in traditional buildings. Another one (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/urban-expeditions/green-buildings/surprising-ways-green-buildings-improve-health-sustainability/) showed that employees in green buildings were better at making decisions, reaching goals, and completing tasks. Some “green” features helped circadian rhythms, allowing workers to sleep better at night and be more alert.

Finally, Environmental Progress. While this article has focused on financial benefits, let’s not forget that “green” building results in indisputable environmental benefits, too. By moving toward “green” building, your firm can demonstrate to stakeholders progress which can be tracked through the amount of greenhouse gas emission reductions achieved.

CCES has the experts to help you assess your buildings and determine which green features will provide you with the most direct financial benefits, whether it be a full LEED certification or just upgrading with select features. We can assure you that the features will be incorporated correctly and provide the maximum financial benefits. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.

AI Used For Improved Energy Efficiency

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is all the rage. Can a machine be built to use its intelligence to replace or even exceed the “natural” intelligence of humans? Can machines reliably and correctly process and interpret external data, learn from such data, and use it to achieve specific goals? The media is full of news of new AI discoveries and ways to use “robots” to displace workers in many fields. Can AI help society become more energy efficient?

Metro de Madrid, in conjunction with Accenture, developed and implemented a self-learning AI-based ventilation system to mini¬mize energy costs and ensure commuter comfort in metro stations. See https://www.energymanagertoday.com/artificial-intelligence-platform-firm-0177074/ Metro de Madrid claims to have reduced its ventilation energy costs by 25% and cut CO2 emissions by 1,800 tons annually.

To help passengers stay cool inside stations on hot summer days, Metro de Madrid operates 891 ventilation fans, consuming as much as 80 GWh of electricity annually.

Madrid Metro and Accenture Applied Intelligence developed a system that used an optimization algorithm leveraging data to explore every possible combination of air temperature, station architecture, train frequency, passenger load and electricity price. Both historic and simulated data were used. The algorithm used machine learning; the system improved its prediction of the optimal balance for each train station over time.

The system also includes a simulation and maintenance module, allowing for, among other things, tracking for failures in the fans’ operation. This enables Metro de Madrid to not only predict and monitor energy consump¬tion, but also identify and respond to potential system deficiencies and pro¬actively order equipment maintenance.

Teaching systems to find and use historic data to more accurately predict needs in the future is a way AI can help a system run better and more energy efficiently, too.

CCES is not an expert on AI, but we can use our extensive experience to help your entity be more energy efficient and productive and bring in AI experts, if necessary. We can give you options to determine the best direction forward of producing your product reliably and efficiently. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.

DOE Moves To Rescind Lighting Energy Efficiency Standards

The US Department of Energy (DOE) published its intention to rescind two 2017 rules which expanded energy efficiency standards for light bulbs. See https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2019/02/f59/withdrawal-of-gsl-definition-nopr.pdf. The DOE claimed that the plan misconstrued existing law and can no longer go forward.

The DOE’s Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products Other Than Automobiles covers most major household appliances, including general service lamps (GSLs), The rule directs the DOE to conduct two rulemaking cycles, one to include incandescent lights within the definition of GSL and the other to evaluate energy conservation standards for GSLs. January 2017 rulemaking addressed these 2 issues. The new energy conservation standards, which incandescent bulbs would have problems meeting, were to go into effect in January 2020.

Rescinding the rule would cost consumers billions of dollars and also increase emissions of GHGs and toxic compounds. Most of the American public and businesses have already addressed the standards, in terms of caldelabras, reflectors, sockets, and bulb performance. About 3 billion sockets in US homes alone would be impacted.

An analysis of the rule and its potential roll back estimates that rescinding the rules will:

• cost American households $22 billion in 2025, about $180 per household.

• US electricity use would increase by 80 billion kWh per year — about the combined usage of all households in Pennsylvania and New Jersey.

• This relaxing of standards would cause more power plant activity (fossil fuel combustion) which would produce pollution harming the environment and contributing to health problems like asthma. Annual emission increases would include an extra 19,000 tons of nitrogen oxides, 23,000 tons of sulfur dioxide, and 34 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2025 — the latter equal to that of over 7 million cars.

The potential rescinding of the rules would also stifle innovation, eliminating a robust incentive for businesses and homeowners to purchase or invest in energy-efficient LED light bulbs.

The draft rule is currently open for public comment. A public hearing on this issue will be held on February 28, 2019.

Rule or no rule, CCES has the experts to help you invest in the most energy efficient lights possible to maximize your cost and other savings and to design and install them to optimize productivity and reduce O&M. Contact us today 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.

Summary of the Green New Deal

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Sen. Ed Markey on Feb. 7, 2019 each released a framework for prospective legislation called a Green New Deal (GND), an ambitious green and economic policy. The GND proposals may serve as a blueprint for a future climate and energy package or a bipartisan infrastructure bill. Remember, these are not proposed legislation, but, instead, non-binding statements of principle, meant for public release, education, and debate. See: https://apps.npr.org/documents/document.html?id=5731829-Ocasio-Cortez-Green-New-Deal-Resolution and https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Green%20New%20Deal%20Resolution%20SIGNED.pdf.

General suggestions of a GND have been around going back to the Obama Administration, but took a turn to become more serious with the House returning to the Democrats following the 2018 midterm elections and the election of several Congresspeople whose election centered on climate issues, such as converting the U.S. to 100% carbon-free energy, revert to more aggressive environmental regulation, and make “green”-oriented investments in infrastructure and climate adaptation. Until earlier in February, there was no written structure to the recommendations.

The frameworks begin with the arguments about why green change is necessary, referring to the findings of the October 2018 report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and of the November 2018 U.S. government National Climate Assessment Report. The documents use these findings to state their goals of avoiding the worst impacts of climate change by reducing GHG emissions by 40 to 60% below 2010 levels by 2030 and to net-zero global emissions by 2050.

However, these proposals go beyond just green goals by tying them to other issues of importance in the U.S., such as public health, environmental degradation, income inequality, and lack of access to healthcare, which affect of way of life and security. In addition, the documents propose major infrastructure, land management, afforestation, and public transportation investments to raise employment, improve productivity of land, and adapt to impacts of climate change. Few specifics are provided in terms of funding and economic output; however, this would result in major changes to the U.S. economy.

Neither GND resolution provides specifics on how this would be achieved. There is no suggestion of whether a price or tax on carbon emissions would be created or whether cap and trade policies would be used. There is nothing that would eliminate nuclear power as an option or carbon capture and sequestration.

Neither resolution has come up for a vote in either chamber, and whether either will is unknown. GND has garnered a lot of press attention, and there will likely be much debate throughout the country. There is growing press about recent extreme events (forest fires during “off-season”, polar vortex pulling apart, hurricanes, etc.) tied in part to climate change that worries a large portion of the U.S. population and the realization that reduced GHG emissions is necessary. On the other hand, it is anticipated that the GND will require a large injection of public money during a period of high deficits, potentially risking damaging the overall economy. Plus, there is the reality that much of the U.S. population is unfamiliar with these issues and technologies, and can be made to be fearful of change they are not familiar with and worried about future unknowns.

Polls and feedback from constituents may ultimately dictate its success. This will likely lead to the ultimate number of co-sponsors which will lead to an up or down vote or lead to further discussions by Presidential and other candidates in the 2020 election cycle. Might GND become an official plank of the Democratic party? If a vote can be held (more likely, the House), then whether it wins or loses in a close vote, may inform politicians of a growing green popularity in the U.S.

Should GND prove popular in public polls or in a vote, it is possible that some legislators will take some GND provisions and create new legislation based on them relativey soon, which could mean impacts of GND sooner than anticipated.

In the meantime, the public discussions of GND, its need, implementation, and potential impacts are occurring.

CCES has the experts to assist you in “greening” your operations in conjunction with or independent of the GND resolutions. We can recommend “green” options that will also benefit your bottom line (reduce costs, improve productivity, etc.) and project manage these changes to solidify the benefits. Contact us today at karell@CCESworld.com or at 914-584-6720.

Massachusetts’ New Comprehensive Energy Plan

In December 2018, the Massachusetts Dept of Energy Resources released a new Comprehensive Energy Plan. (https://www.mass.gov/files/documents/2018/12/11/CEP%20Report-12122018_0.pdf).

It may serve as a model for other states or regions of the country. Massachusetts’ two-fold goal is to reduce its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions consistent to what is called for by the United Nations and reduce energy usage substantially. It calls for the state to both electrify and to conserve energy usage as much as possible.

According to the Department, in 2016, only 17% of Massachusetts’ energy demand of over 1 quadrillion BTUs was from the electric sector. Transportation uses 44% of its energy and buildings (thermal) use about 39%. Therefore, significant upgrades need to be made in these two areas.

To achieve progress in transportation, the Plan recommends the following 3 changes:

1. Improve electric charging infrastructure

2. Establish a “goal” to require all new cars, light duty trucks, and buses sold in Massachusetts beginning in 2040 to be electric or have equivalent emissions

3. Establish a RGGI-style reduction credit trading system for transportation GHG emissions with other Northeast and Mid-Atlantic states.

As for buildings (thermal), many buildings are switching fuels to natural gas, which results in solid GHG emission reductions. However, to meet the necessary climate change goals, a significant portion of buildings must do better. Because it is not likely in the foreseeable future that thermal load will become decarbonized, reductions can only work by reducing amount of fuel needed to be combusted. In other words, improve energy efficiency. The Plan has numerous references to improved efficiency, such as frequent testing and upgrading of boilers, improved insulation, smarter building, etc. But just as important, it has recommendations to get the information out and incentivize building owners and tenants to invest in energy and carbon reduction.

Together, this Plan could well be a model for what other states select as their way to reduce energy usage within their state and of GHG emissions in the future.

CCES has the experts to help your firm reduce energy usage in a smart way, to reduce costs and GHG emissions. Economical strategies, for you to get the best payback possible and to maximize other benefits, such as improved equipment and worker productivity, reduced O&M costs, no/minimal disruptions, etc. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.

New Climate Change Disclosure Litigation

This year, the New York State Attorney General filed a lawsuit in NY State Supreme Court against Exxon Mobil alleging the firm violated the securities fraud provisions of a 1921 New York statute called the Martin Act in connection with their public disclosures of the future costs of complying with climate change regulations, as well as the future of the company’s existing energy processes. The Attorney General alleged that Exxon misrepresented to stockholders climate change risks by excluding its public estimates of climate change costs, substituting lower internal estimates when evaluating business risks. The AG stated that this maneuver gave investors the impression that Exxon was a safer investment than it may be and caused its stock price to be overvalued.

Public corporations are required to disclosure fully to its investors complete and accurate available data of all matters related to the business’s viability. Recent rulings include risk pertaining to climate change, even if hard numbers are not attainable. While projecting business impacts from physical, business, and regulatory risks of climate change is not definitive, the NY AG believes Exxon knowingly misled the public.

Climate change business risk is focused on the oil and gas industry, as climate change may make their very business obsolete or too costly, not to mention the means it must endeavor to get oil and gas (more physically difficult). Another risk that Exxon did not disclose but is of growing importance to the oil and gas industry is the growing global movement for carbon taxes, which would hit this industry hardest.

While Exxon will, no doubt, vigorously defend itself against this lawsuit, the pending litigation does portend the future importance of changing regulations, sound data gathering, risk assessment, and clear communication by public companies now applied to climate change.

This is a non-legal assessment of developments. If you have further interest, please engage qualified legal professionals. CCES has the experts to help your entity assess the technical and physical aspects of climate change and advise on technical policy to address these issues. Contact us today at karell@CCESworld.com or at 914-584-6720.

EIA Report on 2017 CO2 Emissions

On October 31, 2018, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its report on US greenhouse gas (CO2) emissions in 2017. See: https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/

US energy-related CO2 emissions fell in 2017 to 5.14 billion metric tons, a drop of 0.9% from 2016 levels. Energy-related CO2 emissions dropped 14% (861 million metric tons) since 2005, and in 7 of the previous 10 years. Most of this year’s decline was due to continued reduction in coal combustion by fuel and in electric power by sector. CO2 emissions from the transportation sector rose slightly in 2017, exceeding those from the electric power industry sector for the first time since estimations began. Please note that before one celebrates too much, the electric power segment decline in CO2 emissions in 2017 were caused, in part, by a slightly milder summer nationwide (and lower demand for space cooling) compared to 2016.

In the longer term, from 2005 to 2017, the US economy grew by 20%, while US energy consumption fell by 2% and energy-related CO2 emissions decreased by 14%. Therefore, US economic growth in 2017 was 29% less carbon-intensive, and energy consumption was 12% less carbon-intensive.
Looking ahead, EIA projects that US energy-related CO2 emissions will rise by 1.8% (nearly 100 million metric tons) in 2018, then remain virtually unchanged in 2019.

While US energy-related CO2 emissions declined in recent years, the EIA estimates that global energy-related CO2 emissions rose by 21% (6,040 million metric tons) from 2005 to 2017. This rise in emissions was led by China, India, and other Asian nations, which collectively increased by slightly more than this amount. EIA projects that the rate of global growth of energy-related CO2 emissions will slow to 1% in 2018 and remain essentially flat in 2019.

The EIA estimates that the 4 states that emit the most energy-related CO2 emissions per capita (in order) are Wyoming, North Dakota, West Virginia, and Alaska. All of these states did reduce per capita CO2 emissions in the last decade, Alaska by 32%.

CCES has the experts to help you determine your company’s carbon footprint and recommend strategies to reduce it that will also save you costs and improve worker efficiency. A win-win: a better environmental footprint and many financial benefits, too. Contact us today at karell@CCESworld.com or 914-584-6720.

Clean Energy Is Growing, But Maybe Not Enough

Usually around this time, I do some research for a blog article I write most Decembers summarizing the year and forecasting where energy and environmental items may go in the future. In November, a very well-written article came out in the NY Times that essentially did the job for me. Here is a link: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/12/climate/global-energy-forecast.html?action=click&module=News&pgtype=Homepage

Despite the US government being antagonistic to renewable power and trying to favor traditional “dirty” fuels, such as coal, the world’s markets have spoken and clean energy is competitive with traditional power plants worldwide. Coal is declining in its biggest user country, China, and in the US, too, despite government efforts to the contrary. Over the past 5 years, the average cost of solar power has declined 65% and onshore wind by 15%, with further declines predicted in the future. For many locations and situations, it is now cheaper to build and operate a solar or wind farm than a fossil fuel-driven power plant.

But there is a problem: The International Energy Agency recently published its annual World Energy Outlook (https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2018) which has forecast that despite robust growth of clean energy, it will not meet the GHG emission reduction goals scientists developed to reduce the grave physical threats of climate change. While the agency predicts that by 2040 renewable power will supply 40% of the world’s electricity and China will be close to abandoning coal combustion, the decrease in GHG emissions will not be sufficient to prevent the temperature rise that is likely to result in great damage. Many coal and oil-fired power plants are fairly young and not likely to be replaced by solar until the utilities have gotten their share of the investment.

Similarly, GHG emissions from the transportation sector is predicted to peak in the mid-2020’s as countries strengthen fuel-economy standards and electric vehicles become more acceptable. However, oil use, a large GHG emitter, will still be high as it will continue to be used for space heating and manufacturing plastics and other chemicals.

However, with all these projected gains, the report predicts that GHG emissions will not decline, but continue to rise slowly until 2040. Projected population and economic growth will simply mean more vehicles on the road, plastics in use, etc.

The paper indicates that governments will need to play a key role to bring down GHG emissions. The report notes that the world invests $2 trillion annually in energy infrastructure. Incentives to develop and/or implement clean energy in place of coal and oil will need to expand beyond this to prevent catastrophic effects of climate change.

CCES has the expertise to help your firm or entity evaluate ways to benefit from converting to clean, renewable energy and energy efficiency to improve your climate change or sustainability program and bring many financial benefits. Contact us today at 914-584-6720 or at karell@CCESworld.com.