The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently published its annual World Energy Outlook (https://webstore.iea.org/world-energy-outlook-2019), a major report forecasting global energy trends to 2040. The report has changed its projections since last year, significantly increasing projected offshore wind farms, solar installations and battery-powered cars due to both the growing affordability of these technologies and progress of developing nations to progress toward clean energy goals. However, their rapid growth is not sufficient to slash overall global GHG emissions and meet reduction goals.

The report states that global GHG emissions will not decline as is needed but will continue to rise for the next 20 years, mainly because of the overall rise in demand for energy globally. While the rise in renewable energy is encouraging, it is not large enough to satisfy the extra demand. Fossil fuels will supply the rest of the demand.

Global consumption of coal is declining. The report notes that investment in new coal-fired power plants has dropped sharply recently. Renewable energy with battery storage is now a cheaper way to produce power and is predicted to surpass coal by 2030, rising to 42% of global generation. Natural gas will also cut into coal’s portion, which would drop to 34%. Coal will not go away, as hundreds of young coal plants will continue to operate to fulfill initial investments; policies to retire such plants early are not in place.

Solar power with battery storage is growing fastest of all renewables. However, offshore wind may make bigger gains in the near future. Land-based systems are difficult to approve, but major offshore projects are in the offing. Offshore wind is expected to supply as much as 18% of the European Union’s electricity by 2040 from the current 2%. Major new projects are planned for the U.S., China, South Korea and Japan.

The report states that the transportation sector has mixed news. Last year, 2 million electric cars were purchased globally, helped by declining costs, improved infrastructure (places to “fuel up”), and financial incentives. The IEA expects the electric car market to continue to grow; gasoline/diesel use for the transportation sector will peak by the mid-2020s. However, sales of large SUVs, which use more gasoline than conventional cars, has grown from 18% of passenger vehicles sold in 2000 to 42% today. If this continues, the report notes, it could negate much of the fossil fuel savings of the electric car boom. Carmakers are researching how to manufacture battery-powered versions of SUVs.

Another avenue to reduce GHG emissions is to improve the energy efficiency of buildings and vehicles through building codes and fuel economy standards. The report states that the energy intensity of the global economy improved by only 1.2%, a lower than usual rate. Many nations are weakening these policies, thinking this will lift their economy. In the US, the Trump administration plans to roll back light bulb standards.

The report also notes concerns about Africa, which is projected to grow over the next few decades at a faster pace than China did in recent years. If Africa supplies the energy for such growth with fossil fuel sources, then global GHG emissions could rise greatly. The African continent, researchers say, has greater potential than China and others for solar energy if it can be allowed to be developed properly.

CCES has the experts to help your company or building learn more about energy to become more efficient, save costs, and reduce GHG emissions. We can help you tap into existing incentive programs (which you may be paying into without realizing it) to pay some of the upfront costs and quicken the payback. Contact us today at karell@CCESworld.com or at 914-584-6720.